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Alec Brooks

Ann Romney battles bad Wis. numbers

9/25/2012

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People await a chance to see Ann Romney up close. (Photo by Alec Brooks)
In lieu of class Thursday, we went to Ann Romney's rally at Marquette's Old Gym. Besides Romney, a number of other Republican women spoke, including state Sens. Alberta Darling and Leah Vukmir and Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch.

As my colleague Joe Kvartunas pointed out on Twitter, Mitt Romney's numbers in Wisconsin aren't all that good. Besides the Public Policy Polling poll he referenced, NBC News/Marist and the Marquette Law School polls have bad news for Romney across the board and particularly among women.

I've summarized recent polls of Wisconsin voters that include a gender breakdown in a table below. On average, Romney is behind by 13 points.
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As Melanie Lawder pointed out on her blog post, Ann Romney focused intensely on attracting women voters. (If you need further convincing, check out the banner in the photo above.)

She also was concerned about showing Mitt Romney as a human figure. I think she said "Mitt cares" or something very similar about half a dozen times. It seems the Romney campaign is responding to criticism that Mitt Romney is aloof and uncaring.

Even if you ignore Mitt Romney's numbers among women, he's not doing much better among Wisconsin voters as a whole. The New York Times' blog Fivethirtyeight gives Obama an 86 percent chance of winning the state. And electoral-vote.com, a site run by amateur psephologist Andrew Tanenbaum, rates Wisconsin as 'likely Democrat.' 

I think Romney's long odds are ultimately why Ann Romney visited the state and not Mitt himself. Ann Romney did a fine job of firing up people who are likely to vote anyway, which is useful for the Romney campaign because if supporters are unmotivated, they're not going to vote. She probably also convinced some people who are generally conservative but put off by Mitt Romney's occasional obliviousness to middle-class concerns.

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    I will examine media coverage of politics at one newspaper in particular: The New York Times. I will also include and react to insights from my classmates and professor, Herbert Lowe.

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